Portfolio Trading and Tokenisation: Fixed Income in 2030
With no single macro force in charge, fixed income leaders are building strategies that can cope with a range of outcomes. That is shaping their view of how the market will look by 2030.
These are among the findings of The FILS Europe Playbook, for which Fixed Income Leaders Insights surveyed 100 senior fixed income professionals from asset managers, hedge funds and private banks across Europe.
Four closely linked macro forces
The factors having the greatest influence on investment strategy today are:
- Interest rate policy (48%)
- Geopolitical risk (45%)
- Inflation (44%)
- Currency volatility (42%)
The severity of this year’s conflict-induced energy shocks has pushed fiscal policy down the list, having been a leading challenge in 2025. Even so, government spending and borrowing remain a concern, with European governments’ deficits at a record high.
“I’m surprised government debt levels rank so low on the importance of macro factors. In G10 countries it should be of very high concern, given the interest rates we are going to face and the debt levels we currently have.”
Ines de Tremiolles, Global Head of Trading, BNP Paribas
With uncertainty on several fronts heading into 2027, the ability to rebalance quickly matters more than predicting which factor will dominate.
Portfolio trading leads the way
That need to adjust quickly and often helps explain why the expansion of portfolio trading is the structural trend leaders expect to have the greatest impact on fixed income markets by 2030, selected by 48%. Last year, 42% already relied on portfolio trading as their main route to liquidity in illiquid bonds.
Tokenisation will change the plumbing first
Digital assets and tokenisation rank second (37%), and the infrastructure is starting to arrive. The ECB’s launch of Pontes in September 2026 now allows tokenised assets to settle in central bank money.
Yet fewer than one in ten leaders name tokenisation as the technology that will most change trading. Its initial impact is therefore likely to be on settlement and operations, not execution.
Data lineage moves ahead of ETFs
Greater demand for data lineage and auditability (23%) ranks well ahead of active ETF growth (13%). ETFs now look more like established infrastructure, with most leaders already using them confidently during market stress last year. Meanwhile, the ability to trust and trace data is becoming a market structure issue in its own right.
Planning for many futures
Asked about the defining challenge for fixed income investors by 2030, respondents highlight resilience and adaptability. As one put it:
“The defining challenge will be building portfolios that can survive being wrong about the future.”
The FILS Europe Playbook explores portfolio strategy in more depth, alongside liquidity, market structure and data infrastructure.